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ملخص دراسات واصدارات مراكز الابحاث, PUBLICATIONS, AND ARTICLES

Publish Date: 2/12/2020 6:57:26 PM

 

February 8, 2020

الانفاق العسكري الأميركي

أثنت مؤسسة هاريتاج على سياسات الرئيس ترامب بزيادة مخصصات ميزانية البنتاغون "وشهدت السنوات الثلاث الأخيرة نمواً جيداً في القوات والمعدات العسكرية،" مما دفع ترامب للإعلان بأن "تم انجاز إعادة بناء قواتنا بشكل تام." وأوضحت بأن ذلك انعكس على تعزيز الجهوزية في القوات البرية بمعدل 55% ".. لكن لا يزال أمامنا مهام ينبغي إنجازها لإعادة بناء القوات الأميركية بصورة تامة؛ مما يتطلب تخصيص استثمارات إضافية." وأعربت المؤسسة عن ثقتها بقرار الرئيس ترامب انشاء قوة فضائية التي من شأنها "إتاحة الفرصة (للبنتاغون) تركيز جهودها بشكل أكثر فعالية على هذا المضمار الحيوي."

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/02/04/live-reaction-to-trumps-state-of-the-union-address/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=live-reaction-to-trumps-state-of-the-union-address#headline2

 

أقر مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية بفشل خطة البنتاغون لإنجاز "اسطول من السفن الحربية المسيّرة ذاتياً للقرن الحادي والعشرين." وأوضح أن جملة تحديات اعترضت بلوغ الهدف منها "رفع سقف السفن المسيّرة إلى 355 وتقليص الميزانية المطلوبة" أسهمت في عدم بلورة الهيكلية المطلوبة لذلك، وإرجاء الإعلان عن تركيبة الهيكلية إلى فصل الربيع عوضاً عن شهر كانون الثاني/يناير الماضي." أما بشأن تداعيات ذلك، وفق المركز، فإن سلاح البحرية سيعاني من قدرته على بلورة وصياغة ميزانية الدفاع للعام 2021.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/spectacular-public-collapse-navy-force-planning

 

خطة ترامب "للسلام"

أكد معهد واشنطن "الأهمية العالية لخطة السلام الأميركية من وجهة نظر الحكومة الإسرائيلية .. لا سيما وأن إدارة ترامب لن تستمر بتعديل بنود الخطة مع كل رفض من الجانب الفلسطيني؛" وذلك في سياق دراسته للمقارنة بين خطة ترامب بالمبادرات الأميركية السابقة "عندما يتعلق الأمر بمسائل الوضع النهائي: الحدود والقدس، الأمن واللاجئين؛" موضحاً أن خطة ترامب لا "تستند إلى الخط الأخضر كنقطة مرجعية .. وأضحت مسالة تبادل الأراضي الآن موضع جدل؛ مما سيزيد حصة إسرائيل في الضفة الغربية من 8% إلى 31%." أما القدس "فستبقى عاصمة لإسرائيل وسيتم التنازل عن قسم كبير من المدينة لصالح إسرائيل، وبسط سيادتها على 294،000 فلسطيني في القدس الشرقية." ويمضي التقرير بالقول فإن "الانفتاح المبدئي للدول العربية على الخطة كنقطة انطلاق، قد يحث الفلسطينيين على الاعتراف بأن الزمن ليس في صالحهم."

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/continuity-vs.-overreach-in-the-trump-peace-plan-part-1-borders-and-jerusal

 

اعتبرت مؤسسة هاريتاج رفض الفلسطينيين لخطة ترامب بأنه "فرصة مهدورة،" مستدركة أن ما تناولته الخطة يعبر عن "رؤية ترامب للسلام والتي هي الأكثر ميلاً للموقف الإسرائيلي من أي خطة أميركية سابقة على الإطلاق." وأضافت أن "رؤية ترامب تنطوي على مكاسب هامة للفلسطينيين: بناء دولتهم مدعومة بـ 50 مليار دولار لتطوير المناطق الفلسطينية  وأخرى في الدول العربية المجاورة."

https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/commentary/palestinians-miss-opportunity-rejecting-trump-peace-plan

تركيا في ليبيا

اعتبر مركز الدراسات الاستراتيجية والدولية تحرك الرئيس التركي نحو ليبيا بأنه أتى نتيجة "تحقيق جزئي لأهدافه في سوريا، المتمثلة في إنشاء حزام أمني في الشمال الشرقي منها." وأضح أن تدخله في "الأزمة الليبية المعقدة كان ثمرة عدد من العوامل: تساوقها مع سياسته الخارجية الاستباقية لتوسيع دور تركيا في المنطقة؛ ورفع مكانة تركيا على المسرح الدولي" كلاعب مؤثر في الأحداث.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/erdogans-libyan-gambit

إيران

حث المجلس الأميركي للسياسة الخارجية صناع القرار على إدامة التيقن من "استفزاز إيران المقبل المتوقع؛ وما إذا استعدت واشنطن لما قد يأتي لاحقاً في ظل تركيزها على تشديد الضغوط الاقتصادية على طهران." ونبه أقرانه إلى الدور المتنامي لمجلس صيانة الدستور في إدارة البلاد "ورفضه استيفاء نحو ثلث أعضاء البرلمان شروط الترشح للانتخابات المقبلة، مما يعني عدم رغبته في صعود شخصيات إصلاحية بالإضافة لسعية تطهير البرلمان من أعضاء يعتبرهم معتدلين زيادة عن اللزوم."

https://www.afpc.org/publications/articles/washington-needs-to-anticipate-irans-next-provocation

   

SUMMARY, PUBLICATIONS, AND ARTICLES

Think Tanks Activity Summary

 

The Heritage Foundation looks at Trump’s State of the Union Speech and his defense and foreign policy comments.  The Middle East was prominently featured in Trump’s State of the Union speech. The president noted that his administration had made a priority of “combating radical Islamic terrorism” and briefly described his Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative, which calls for the disarming of Hamas and other Islamic terrorists, as part of that effort. He spent much more time in recounting the progress his administration has made in defeating ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria. He noted the death of ISIS leader Al-Baghdadi in a U.S. military operation last year and received one of the longest standing ovations of the night.  Trump ended the Middle East portion of his speech by drawing a distinction between Iran’s long-suffering people and Iran’s oppressive regime. He called on Tehran to end its nuclear weapon ambitions and support for terrorism, while stressing that he remains open to a diplomatic resolution of these issues

 

The CSIS looks at America’s failure to plan Navy force levels.  They conclude, “Because of the reduced budget, it cannot do what it had done for the last several years of budget growth: expand the fleet while still investing in new technologies. Because of the 355-ship force goal, it cannot cut the size of the fleet to fund new initiatives. Because of the fixed counting methodology, it cannot claim to meet the 355-ship goal by including ships that were previously uncounted. It may be that some combination of delay in meeting the 355-ship goal, small changes to the counting methodology, smaller and more affordable ships, and a bit more shipbuilding money will provide a solution, but getting all parties to agree will be hard.”

 

The American Foreign Policy Council says Washington needs to anticipate Iran’s next move.  They conclude, “Looking ahead, the question is whether the regime, facing rising domestic discontent and surely worried about its grip on power, will seek to rally public support by again targeting U.S. interests — especially in the aftermath of elections that will likely usher in a more conservative body. We shouldn’t be surprised to see Tehran flex its muscles by increasing its support for terrorist and militia groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and — in light of President Trump’s efforts to craft an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement — in the Gaza Strip as well. Nor should we be surprised to see more direct Iranian regional action of the kind that we’ve witnessed in recent months, such as another attack on tankers in the Gulf of Oman or another strike at Saudi oil facilities…Presuming that Washington will continue to tighten the screws on Iran economically, the coming months could prove more dangerous, not less. One hopes that Washington is preparing for all the possibilities.”

 

The Washington Institute looks at the Trump peace plan and the issues of Jerusalem and borders.  They conclude, “The Trump plan’s parameters on borders and Jerusalem suggest that the administration has moved the U.S. position sharply in the direction of Israel’s current government. In the most hopeful scenario, the combination of a tough new U.S. approach and the initial openness of Arab states to consider the plan as a point of departure could jolt the Palestinians to decide that time is not on their side, perhaps leading the parties to resume talks and find suitable compromises. In a less hopeful scenario, Palestinian anger toward the plan proves too strong to dispel, and unilateral Israeli annexations in the West Bank produce broad international opposition to the plan, essentially ending any near-term prospects of negotiations or a two-state solution. Abbas seemed isolated in the region prior to the plan’s release, but the February 1 Arab League meeting in Cairo and the February 3 Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah may have changed that somewhat. Going forward, he may be able to paint the administration’s shift on core issues as American overreach, and silence Arab critics who are fatigued by the longstanding paralysis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

 

The Heritage Foundation looks at the Trump Peace Plan.  They conclude, “Getting the buy-in of these key Arab states is important for the Trump administration’s “outside-in” strategy, which seeks to enlist support from Arab states that already have made peace with Israel (Egypt and Jordan) as well as Arab Gulf oil states that fear Iran more than Israel (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait).  It is not clear how hard Arab leaders will pressure Palestinian leaders to accept the plan. Realistically, the plan is unlikely to advance peace talks unless the Palestinians engage on it, and that is not likely. It takes two to tango, but Palestinian leaders have refused multiple American invitations to attend the dance. The Trump peace plan is therefore unlikely to jumpstart the long-stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.  But even if it produces no immediate results, Trump’s initiative will serve as a marker that could encourage Palestinian leaders to take a more realistic approach to negotiations in the future and improve the long-term prospects for peace.”

The CSIS looks at Erdogan’s policy in Libya.  They note, “The international situation Erdogan finds himself in is different to that which prevailed at the time of his third military intervention in northern Syria in October. He was then able to obtain not only the implicit assent of both the United States and Russia prior to the operation but also their subsequent diplomatic acceptance through separate ceasefire agreements. This time Erdogan has not been able to get the understanding he may have expected from either Putin, with whom he discussed the Libyan situation in bilateral meetings in Istanbul, Moscow, and Berlin, or President Donald Trump.”

 

PUBLICATIONS

What you need to know about Trump’s policy proposals

Heritage Foundation

February 5, 2020

 

The president declared that “our military is completely rebuilt.”  The last three years have indeed been good for the U.S. military, and much of the lost readiness that had dwindled over the years has been restored. Army readiness, for example, is up 55%.  But despite favorable budgets, the military is not yet fully rebuilt. Years of budget cuts and years of over-use have strained the military, postponed necessary equipment refresh, and caused the military to shrink in size. While there are unmistakable signs of progress, there is still work to be done to fully restore the military. Additional investment and attention will still be needed. As noted by the president, the creation of the Space Force is a true step forward for the United States. It will allow our country to better focus its efforts in this critical domain.

Read more at:

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/02/04/live-reaction-to-trumps-state-of-the-union-address/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=live-reaction-to-trumps-state-of-the-union-address#headline2

 

Palestinians Miss Opportunity by Rejecting Trump Peace

By James Phillips

Heritage Foundation

Jan 31, 2020

President Donald Trump unveiled his long-awaited Israeli-Palestinian peace plan on Tuesday at a White House ceremony attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump declared that the plan “presents a ‘win-win’ opportunity for both sides, a realistic two-state solution that resolves the risk of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security.” Netanyahu enthusiastically embraced Trump’s vision, proclaiming, “It’s a great plan for Israel. It’s a great plan for peace.” He then lauded Trump as “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.”  Indeed, Trump’s vision for peace is the most pro-Israeli peace initiative ever promoted by the United States. It accords a high priority to Israeli security needs, recognizes Israel’s vital interest in retaining control of the border with Jordan, and clears the way for U.S. recognition of Israeli sovereignty over many settlements and Jewish holy sites in the disputed territory of the West Bank. Trump’s vision also includes important benefits for Palestinians, who were offered the opportunity to build a state of their own, supported by a $50 billion regional development plan for the Palestinian territories and nearby Arab states.

Read more at:

https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/commentary/palestinians-miss-opportunity-rejecting-trump-peace-plan

 

 

The Spectacular & Public Collapse of Navy Force Planning

By Mark F. Cancian and Adam Saxton

Center for Strategic and International Studies

January 30, 2020

 

Planning for a 21st century Navy of unmanned vessels, distributed operations, and great power competition has collapsed. Trapped by a 355-ship force goal, a reduced budget, and a fixed counting methodology, the Navy can’t find a feasible solution to the difficult question of how its forces should be structured. As a result, the Navy postponed announcement of its new force structure assessment (FSA) from January to “the spring.” That means the navy will not be able to influence the 2021 budget year much, forfeiting a major opportunity to reshape the fleet and bring it in line with the national defense strategy.

Read more at:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/spectacular-public-collapse-navy-force-planning

 

 

Erdogan's Libyan Gambit

By Bulent Aliriza

Center for Strategic and International Studies

January 24, 2020

 

After having focused for most of the last quarter of 2019 on northeastern Syria and his declared security imperative of pushing the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) away from the Turkish border, a goal he partially achieved through a military operation launched on October 9, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan turned his attention to Libya. Accordingly, parallel to the worsening of the long-running Libyan civil war, Erdogan has raised the level of Turkish diplomatic and military involvement on the side of the embattled Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli headed by Fayez Sarraj against the growing challenge of the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar. Erdogan’s decision to insert Turkey more forcefully into the complex Libyan crisis is the product of a number of factors, each of them important from his perspective. To begin with, it fits into Erdogan’s proactive foreign policy, which seeks to establish and expand Turkey’s role in its region, especially in countries with which Turkey enjoys historical, cultural, or religious links, while raising Turkey’s overall international profile.

Read more at: https://www.csis.org/analysis/erdogans-libyan-gambit

 

 

Washington needs to anticipate Iran’s next provocation

By Lawrence J. Haas

American Foreign Policy Council

January 30, 2020

 

Signs are mounting that in Tehran, which faces rising pressures at home and abroad, the country’s powerful hardline conservatives are circling the wagons, raising the odds of still more Iranian global provocations. The question is whether Washington — which continues to tighten the economic screws on Tehran — is ready for what might come next. In the latest conservative effort to solidify power, the country’s Guardian Council recently barred 9,500 prospective candidates (almost two-thirds of the 14,500 prospective candidates) in next month’s parliamentary elections, from running. The 12-member Guardian Council — an unelected body that includes six designees of the nation’s ultimate authority, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — routinely bars hundreds if not thousands of would-be candidates from elections because they’re not conservative enough or committed enough to the regime’s revolutionary goals. This time, however, the barred candidates include nearly a third of the current parliament. The signal was clear. The Council not only wants to prevent new reformist candidates from winning office; it also wants to purge the parliament of members it considers too moderate.

Read more at:

https://www.afpc.org/publications/articles/washington-needs-to-anticipate-irans-next-provocation

 

 

Continuity vs. Overreach in the Trump Peace Plan (Part 1): Borders and Jerusalem

By David Makovsky

Washington Institute

February 4, 2020

POLICYWATCH 3255

 

The newly released U.S. peace plan marks a very significant shift in favor of the current Israeli government’s view, especially when compared to three past U.S. initiatives: (1) the Clinton Parameters of December 2000, (2) Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s “Annapolis Process” of 2007-2008, and (3) Secretary of State John Kerry’s 2013-2014 initiative. The message is clear: the Trump administration will no longer keep sweetening the deal with every Palestinian refusal, a criticism some have aimed at previous U.S. efforts. Yet the new plan raises worrisome questions of its own. Will its provisions prove so disadvantageous to the proposed Palestinian state that they cannot serve as the basis for further negotiations? And would such overreach enable Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to sway Arab states who have signaled that they want to give the proposal a chance, convincing them to oppose it instead? If so, the plan may wind up perpetuating the current diplomatic impasse and setting the stage for a one-state reality that runs counter to Israel’s identity as a Jewish, democratic state. This two-part PolicyWatch will address these questions by examining how the Trump plan compares to past U.S. initiatives when it comes to the conflict’s five core final-status issues. Part 1 focuses on two of these issues: borders and Jerusalem.

Read more at:

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/continuity-vs.-overreach-in-the-trump-peace-plan-part-1-borders-and-jerusal

 

Mounzer A. Sleiman, Ph.D.

Center for American and Arab Studies

Think Tanks Monitor

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